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What is the Break-Even Point of Expected Value on Mega Fortune?


Mega Fortune is video slot game with record-breaking progressive jackpots. To begin, we need to gather some facts about the game.

Mega Fortune Jackpot History
(At the time of writing)
€3,105,079 – 38 days ago, February 13, 2013
€17,861,178 – 62 days ago, January 20, 2013
€3,143,840 – 289 days ago, June 7, 2012
€3,949,468 – 358 days ago, March 30, 2012
€6,864,656 – 430 days ago, January 18, 2012
€11,736,228 – 546 days ago, September 24, 2011
€5,318,391 – 760 days ago, February 22, 2011
€4,004,284 – 887 days ago, October 18, 2010
€2,168,469 – 993 days ago, July 4, 2010
€2,804,768 – 1055 days ago, May 3, 2010
€3,015,607 – 1133 days ago, February 14, 2010
€3,992,167 – 1233 days ago, November 6, 2009

Jackpot average
€5,663,671

Payout
96.4%

Amount of each spin that goes to the jackpot
4%

Faktaruta
Mega Fortune is a video slot game that is exclusively played on the net. It was developed by Net Entertainment NE AB in Stockholm. The game is played at online casinos such as Vera&John.

One suggested calculation goes like this

The 4% taken to the jackpot matches 0.04*96.4=3.856% of the payout. Since the payout is 96.4% we need another 3.6% of payout. Break even is at 3.6/3.845=0.9363 of the average Jackpot. 0.9363*5,663,671=5,302,786.89 so the break even is reached at a Jackpot at roughly €5.3M. Play only when the Jackpot is higher than this and you will get a positive EV.

This means that the game Mega Fortune had a positive expected value during the late summer 2011 and at the end of 2013. At the time of writing the Jackpot is at €1,916,676 and at a negative expected value, and it will probably have a negative expected value for at least another 3 months, unless the Jackpot is hit before then.

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